Goodbye 2011, Welcome 2012
In this article I want to give a brief overview of some of the interesting things that happened during 2011 in the world of technology, especially startup, and try to propose 4 + 1 predictions that will happen in 2012.
Event, Investor, Community
Beside the dynamic growth and the fall of startup, the one that catch my attention is the technology events that related to the growth of startup. A part of the various events that become a routine event or a new event which presents various updates, these various events are also supported by major brands, such as Nokia or Samsung and Lenovo which also held an event later this year as they are associated with innovation - entrepreneurial that is attached to the startup as well. Not to mention the events are associated with developers, such as events from RIM, Nokia, Blaast, Yahoo! and Google who is targeting the developers or the startups.
There are also regular community based events such as FOWAB, Station, Bancakan, Startuplokal, Subali and various other events which still exist, although there are some events which are not regular as before but their presence still remains to support the startup ecosystem.
The growth of incubators, accelerators, various programs associated with startup (workshop, boot-camp) and also the investor itself - VCs and angel investors are also taking a significant role in 2011. Local investors and Asia, as well as U.S investor presented and approached various startup to make exploration of investing. Some of them managed to make an investment, but some are not and there are also who are still seeking.
When talking about community, Hackerspace also appeared in various regions; after Bandung, now it appears in Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Malang and Bandung Digital Valley owned by Telkom which officially launched this December. I also heard that hackerspace will popup in other cities. A little note for hackerspace, I would like to see at least one year (assuming the contract period for buildingsoffice space) for their development, whether it will survive, thrive or not.
The events and investors growth should be able to co-exist. Beside announced winners, technology event often provide a pitch session where investors can participate and chose the service or startup that has been attractive to accelerate in service or business. Although certainly not all startup require investment, but at least the event/pitch session could be a way for the investors to see and find startup. In 2011, seems this process isn't running to its potential, let us see in 2012.
The Learning Year
Aligned with the investor’s growth, 2011 also marked with the startup funding, ranging from game studio, blog ad networks, payment service, network media, social media services, and various startup from various segments.
The increment of the investment amount is predicted with the estimation of the growth that comes from investors such as various program acceleration, workshop, bootcamp, and some events which present independently.
Rama once said in a discussion, that 2011 was marked with falls of startup, in 2012 will also be more and more. Frankly speaking I agree with this; however the important thing is how to study the factors that make they falls or less developed; to analyze it and then formulate another strategy for 2012.
2011 was a startup learning year. The lessons can be seen from the falls, the one who managed to get the investments or the one who survived without any investment. In 2012, there should be more data that can be used as a reference. Despite many falls, others will come with more mature preparation, thus industry can grow.
Macro factor
The important thing to watch are the industry and macro economy, GDP, growth of internet users, the growth of middle class people, and the strategy of large companies in Indonesia that hold the key developments in the ICT area, information that related to this several example must begin to be learned. When we are talking about business, everything is related, and can be mutually connected to the opportunities.
I almost always sceptical with things associated with the government, but strategy policies and regulations issued by the government remain to be a source of information for developing a startup, for example: internet network plan, regulations related to e-commerce, and other things also must begin to be addressed. Nowadays ICT industry grew rapidly, the government would also concern about this. I hope the government can implement policies that support it rather than impede it.
About the developments of the Internet, Aulia wrote a very interesting article about where is Indonesia's position in the growth of Internet users and market opportunities that may arise from our population. You can read it here and here.
Frankly speaking, we also can't ignore about social media in Indonesia. 2011 is also the year of social media in Indonesia, besides the user, the various activities that develop with the help of social media continues to grow. Events associated with any social media have more and more presented.
The advertising business that uses social media is also more interesting, and of course, the use of social media for advertising would be more mature in next, and the measurement tools also would be growing. Although digital advertising is still small compared to conventional media, but the growth of mobile users, the internet users and supporting device will continue to develop existing business.
Prediction 2012
Here are some points that I think will become a trend in 2012. The trend could mean the more services in the segment or the additional information about what might be growing and in demand during 2012.
Several points are based on data and analysis that I read, some more are from thinking and instinct (perhaps a bit of assumption) about what I feel and think.
This is a list of 4 + 1; hopefully it can be a source of inspiration and additional information.
1. User Generated Content (UGC)
Although for some reason I don't like the UGC-based services, but in the reality people in Indonesia likes this services. Well, I'm referring to UGC-based services. This service uses the ways or methods of UGC for expanding their services. Some examples that appear in 2011 are BisTip, Sribu, OrderKaos, niche social networking and various other services.
Another factor that could be considered is how the user's interest to obtain income using the UGC-based services. The more and more people access the internet. They are also trying to find income opportunities and needing additional income channel opportunities. Freelancers are increasingly growing. For example, in BisTip, or Sribu, users can use the site and earn additional income.
2. Mobile Games
Although game is not synonymous with mobile, but I see in Indonesia, mobile and gaming are two combinations that are difficult to separate. A lot of mobile users are looking for the latest gadgets. Games on the other hand, despite social media that has always attracted Indonesian users.
Many investors are looking for a mobile game developer or studio to get in their portfolio. Game has become a global trend, especially to those who are into the mobile realm. On the other hand the awareness to make the studio also higher. Game developers in Indonesia (including programmer, artist, producer, music director, etc.) have an outstanding quality. This will also trigger the emergence of local game.
In 2011 the support brands like Nokia could also spur the growth of the gaming world. Many success stories will emerge this year (I hope). It could be an attraction for local developers to make games or set up a game studio. Not to mention the success story or opportunities from the developers who developed games for iOS, Android, RIM - BB and Blaast that was already soft-launched this month.
Speaking about the brand, I heard Samsung will also be more aggressive again to approach and ask the developers to provide their applications in the Samsung ecosystem (especially Android) next year. This would be interesting because the gaming applications have heavier level of competition but it has fewer barriers to be known by the user. Games are more attractive to users.
Not to mention the upper and middle-class people behaviour and maybe even below that has begun to buy a tablet, especially parents who want to provide a play-tool for their children. The game intended for children also have a great opportunity.
3. Entertainment - Videos and Music
One more segment that never seems to be abandoned by users Indonesia is entertainment: video, music, audio visual. DailySocial wrotesomearticleson music. I also agreed with what has been expressed in those various articles. Music is still wide open to conquer by, even though it's not easy. However with the right strategy, it will have a chance to succeed.
Music also seems to seek new form and way to market in a form of RBT - SMS (Ring Back Tones - SMS). Although for me the more important is how to create an ecosystem, integrated service that is easy to use but has a value added service that can add the consumption behaviour which has been owned by the user. Music lovers have their own behaviour, digital downloads that are developed must be in accordance with their behaviour while it's also educating potential new users. The process should be easy to enjoy music and not difficult for user from the purchase, save and listen or even enjoy music in their several device. The mobile device must also be included as consideration in developing a music service.
For me video service might be also having a chance to be a trend in 2012, or at least it will grow. Market share for this is still wide open; for example Viki invited filmmakers Indonesia to provide film in their service. I also once wrote about Buttonijo services that also provide video for purchasing purpose.
A part of internet speed and piracy factor but with the right strategies and tactics, the Internet could be one of medium to showcase video works or even video selling-based products. The opportunity is still quite large.
4. Niche Commerce
2011 also became an interesting year for growth and development of e-commerce. The player with the support of large banks or funds also entered this segment. This is including some with network in the world or Asia.
I see that for startup; e-commerce trends that will appear is not just about social commerce, the word 'social' seems to have become the 'default'. I see that e-commerce is entering a specific segment - a niche that will grow, especially fashion that targets young adult or young designers.
For example, Blibli has included local brand products for young segment, thent here also Localbrand.co.id. In the past distro (distribution outlet) or local brands have their own sites, but now there’s an emerging marketplace that provides a variety of products in one place. Fashion is one product that may not be dead expired, thus the growth of these services can continue to appear.
5. The emergence of a New Startup
This final point reaffirmed several things that I wrote in my early writings, 2011 is year of investors, incubators, workshop program, bootcamp, etc. It‘s added with various events and competitions. Next year the winners will begin to go into the test, the 'honeymoon period' will soon be over and they will be confronted with the actual conditions that exist in the industry. Some of it may get fund, and others may developing their own business. Thus, 2012 is an exciting year to record, analyze and study about the conditions of the local digital industries especially startup.
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That is a glimpse of my writing about 2011 and what I expect in 2012. I certainly don’t recommend that you trust 100%, it is not good. It's only as a source of additional information which may be an inspiration. And of course, the comments field is open to a good discussion.
It also became my last article in 2011, thanks for a great year, applaud for the founder, developers, investors, users and other parties that participated startup ecosystem and develop the IT industry in Indonesia, see you and Happy New Year 2012.
Thanks to @errithethird for his ilustration in this article.